Important period - Watch out US stock market performance till end of next week ( Dec 27th 2021 - Jan 7th 2022 )
Before I continue posting part 2 of the Us market interview. I just want to point out that post-Christmas period, I will be watching the following period closely to determine stock market year end performance in 2022, ( basically every institutional player and top analyst will be watching the next 2 weeks to give their forecast, even though they are on holiday )
1) the next 7 trading days after Christmas , which includes first 2 trading days in January ( edit for correction : it’s next five + first 2 trading days in January 2022 )
2) First five trading days in January
3) January closing month performance (sum of S&P 500 return percentage for the entire January period, positive or negative )
To re-emphasize , this 3 signal determines 2002 year end performance, the closing percentage of year 2022 with a high percentage, it doesn’t say anything about the volatility in between January - December though, to know the possible path, I will be posting various scenarios that we could be facing , since 2022 is US mid-term election years, which can be quite volatile in 1st half, possible even up to July-September , by knowing every scenario in advance, Every investor and trader will be better prepared mentally and emotionally)
I do (humbly) expect the post-Christmas period, Fist five days and January to be all positive. but if I am a wrong, then we will learn something new either way.
I will be posting the year 2022 outlook in the first week of January, and will update again by earliest 1st February based on final closing performance of January.
Based on above chart after Monday close, Market are off to a good start in the first trading day post-Christmas period, with S&P 500 gaining, 1.38 % and Nasdaq 100 gaining 1.59%, So far so good after conclusion of 1st trading day after Christmas Holiday is over, S&P High beta ETF and Junk bond ETF is going up higher ( after bouncing off 200MA due to the fall in end November – mid December period ) , I will be watching this chart closely until end of next week.
In terms of SPX sector performance yesterday, the usual general, XLK has been leading again(no.2) on the 1st trading day post Christmas, so far so good, let’s hope market will have a good closing after end of next week.
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