Daily market review Mar 21, 2024 ( expansion of new high, potential inverse head & shoulder in BTC hourly chart )
Broad market overview
Market continue with the small rally . Notable outperformers are mid cap making new all time high rallying more than 1%. Small cap also rally more than 1%.
DJIA , equal weighted and cap weighted large cap continue to close at new all time high. Cap-weighted and equal-weighted Nasdaq breakout but fail to close at new all time high.
S&P 500 11 sectors
Industrials and financial are top ranking sectors while Utilities and staples are the bottom ranking sectors.
When you have broad based participation in so many sectors, in addition to Financial joining the rally, this should put the sustainability and strength of the rally beyond any doubt.
MOVE index
MOVE index closed significantly lower at 90 level ( bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 9% per annum. ) Consistent close below 100 level is in general bullish for market.
Bond volatility moving lower translates into lesser haircut to bond, in which more liquidity can be extracted from the collateral pool.
NYSE & Nasdaq market internals
Healthy internals accompany the rally, expansion of new high and contraction of new low. Can’t get any better than this.
On March 21tst 2024,
2.14 to 1 NYSE Advancer to Decliner ratio (1923/900 )
1.40 to 1 Nasdaq Advancer to Decliner ratio (2474/1773 )
Small cap growth base breakout
Price retest previous base breakout support. Will it retrace deeper or bounce from there ? likely to bounce higher if price can stay and hold above 270.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin traded as low as sub 61000 ( high 60K ), but still higher than recent low ( sub 60K ), higher high and higher low remains, and that’s the textbook definition of uptrend ( as long as 60K support holds )
RSI is still holding above 50 level.
Potential Inverse Head and shoulders pattern in hourly chart ?
Zooming into hourly charts. is this a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern in the making, it could be if it holds above 65K and subsequently rally above 68.9K.
Daily flow of Spot BTC ( ETF )
Bitcoin had the largest 1 day withdrawal on Tuesday March 19
Institution joining rally, retail staying on the sideline
Who’s in the Bitcoin rally from sub 40K to 70K ? Institutions has been buying it hand over fist but small fry retailers are staying on the sideline.
As always, we will continue to monitor the charts, assess the bullish/bearish evidence day-by-day to make appropriate capital allocation and investment decisions on all time frame ( short, mid & long term )
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