Daily market review June 9, 2025 ( Bitcoin challenge 110k, Trump Musk feud is over, US stock market is on the verge of challenging ATH again while momentum and breadth is still lagging somewhat )
Navigating the Headline-Driven Chaos
The market remains a roller coaster of headline-driven volatility, where patience and decisiveness must coexist—easier said than done. With headlines shifting at lightning speed and algorithms front-running price moves faster than most traders can blink, staying sane requires discipline. A well-crafted checklist, backed by established procedures and key technical charts, can help cut through the noise and keep you focused on what truly matters.
Trump & Musk: From Bromance to Blowout?
The Trump-Musk saga took a sharp turn last Friday, with visible tensions flaring in Trump press conference with the German chancellor and all out battle of words in Musk X and Truth social account. The deleted tweets only add to the mystery—was this a genuine fallout or a 4D chess move with a deeper purpose? Whatever the case, markets reacted swiftly, only for Tesla to claw back over 70% of its losses since last Friday. So, was the drama staged, or will we see further near-term ripple effects? Stay tuned.
The Market’s Tug-of-War: Key Battles Ahead
The next phase of market direction hinges on how investors navigate these crucial questions:
1. Soft Data vs. Hard Data – As the rally persists, will sentiment-driven soft data finally align with harder economic figures? Early signs suggest it might.
2. Post-Tariff Growth Outlook – After the rush to front-run tariffs, how much retracement or slowdown should we brace for? Growth data is murky, but employment numbers remain a cleaner, albeit lagging, indicator.
3. US Long-Term Yields vs. Global long term yield upturn Pressure – Japan, the epicenter of recent long-term yield spikes, might show signs of easing. The Japanese government plans to trim ultra-long-term debt issuance, pivot toward short-term notes, and buy back older bonds with lower interest rates.
4. Employment Data Watch – How soon will continuing jobless claims tick higher?
5. The Fed’s Balancing Act – How much will the Fed resist rate cuts to maintain its independence, even as growth falters and unemployment risks rise?
With all these moving parts, uncertainty remains the market’s only certainty.
Now, let’s dive deeper into the market review.
Broad market overview
Everything is flat except for Semiconductors, Small cap and housing sectors, riskiest area, economically and rate sensitive area are performing the best.
S&P 500 11 sectors overview
Discretionary, technologies and Materials are the leading performers, while Utilities, financial, healthcare are the laggards.
MOVE index
Move index is currently at 92.61, bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 9.26% per annum.
Lower MOVE points to (implied) lower bond market volatility going forward. Bond volatility moving lower translates into less haircut to bond, in which more liquidity can be extracted from the collateral pool.
Summary of Market situation
Trend and Momentum Section
SPX
NDX
Market breadth section
% of SPX stocks above 20D 50D 200D moving average
S&P 500 index break above recent high, but breadth is still consolidating, the longer this divergence hold, the more relevant it becomes.
% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 62.8%
% of SPX stock above 50Day MA : 74.6%
% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 52.4%
NYSE & Nasdaq market internals
NYSE side activities occurred at lower volume but Nasdaq has higher volume going for it.
In June 9 2025 session,
1.76 to 1 NYSE Advancer to Decliner ratio (1753/996 )
1.57 to 1 Nasdaq Advancer to Decliner ratio (2731/1741 )
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is reattempting to challenge ATH yesterday, climbing as high as 110K before backing off.
Price is above 20D ,50D and 200D MA.
As always, we will continue to monitor the charts, assess the bullish/bearish evidence day-by-day to make appropriate capital allocation and investment decisions on all time frame ( short, mid & long term )
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