Daily market review July 25, 2024 ( Market continue to be bogged down by bearish mood , what are the macro factors causing the current downtrend ? where is the next opportunity ? )
Broad market overview
Market is still in the doldrums of near term bearish trend
Benchmark indices such Nasdaq 100 lost 1%, S&P 500 lost 0.5%, while Dow Jones industrial average gaining a mere 0.2%.
While mid and small cap gain 0.9% and 1.39% respectively.
Overall, Mid and small cap, Equal weighted indices outperform cap weighted indices.
Today is the PCE day, so we will use market response to PCE data release to monitor market closely.
S&P 500 11 sectors overview
Energy, industrials and financial are the best performing sectors. While communications, Technology and utilities are the bottom ranking sectors.
MOVE index
Move index is currently at 99.80, bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 10% per annum.
MOVE is the space to watch, market participants is experiencing jittery as the BOJ is expected to launch QT. Because bond yield has high correlation across different country, higher yield in Japanese bond could reverberate around the globe to all other countries bond yield
USDJPY has been trending lower as 10Y yield shot up.
NYSE & Nasdaq market internals
There are more Advancers than Decliner.
On July 25 2024,
1.97 to 1 NYSE Advancers to Decliner ratio (1847/937 )
1.5 to 1 Nasdaq Advancers to Decliner ratio (2537/1687 )
% of SPX stocks above 20D 50D 200D moving average
Decline in shorter term breadth as SPX decline to 50D MA.
% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 60.6%
% of SPX stock above 50Day MA : 62.8%
% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 73.4%
Outflow of large institution funds from large cap July 15 – 19
Tell me there’s a sell off without showing me the market charts of S&P500, Nasdaq 100.
Also retail saw inflow, institutions saw outflow, the perfect illustration of chasm between smart money vs dumb money.
Bitcoin
According to the foremost Global Liquidity Expert, Bitcoin track the Global Liquidity relatively closely, lagging only by about 6 weeks, it display the quickest responsiveness to changes in liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin daily chart
Selloff in Bitcoin is officially over. It's current retesting 20D MA, and pending for it to print a higher swing low.
1) Price rose above 20D, 50D, and 200D MA in quick succession
2) making a higher high
3)RSI is above 50
What is the reason for the current stock market plunge and when will it stop ? I believe there are confluence of several factors.
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