Daily market review Jan 30th, 2024 (MSFT flat to down after earnings, Google and AMD drop after earnings )
Broad market overview
On Jan 30th Session, most indices reverse from previous day high to end either flat or slightly down, range are contracting and most are displaying inside candle, indicating indecision & apprehension with the upcoming fed meeting, QRA, and earnings announcement from Apple, Meta and Amazon.
The lone exception being Dow jones industrial average, it has been making new high for 4 consecutive days, but this new high in DJIA is not confirmed by Transportation, this is a troubling sign, Transportation has been unable to break & hold above 16000 high for 5 consecutive days. This divergence has to be resolve somehow, either by Transportation making new high or DJIA falling down, we will see in the next few session how it will be resolved.
By end of tomorrow, market will have an initial inkling of what to expect, whether the recent range contraction/consolidation will resolve in either rally continuation or deeper retracement/ bigger consolidation.
No trading and staying hedge is the name of the game heading into all important QRA and Fed meeting on Wednesday trading session
Post earning reactions
MSFT
For MSFT, the degree of beat was significant, but the guidance was light, therefore share price in the after trading hours was down initially, but recover and is trying to come closer to 408 409 level. We will monitor in the next few trading days on how MSFT perform.
AMD
For AMD, Revenue beat is ok, EPS slight miss, market was not impress with the guidance. Market has come to realize the share price&market cap growth in the past few months is not likely to be in line with business performance going forward ( margin, market share, important revenue segment ) therefore share price is falling by 8 to 10% as we speak now.
Alphabet
For Alphabet, Google AD revenue disappoint, so share slide, enough said.
S&P 500 11 sectors
Financials, Energy and Staples are the top 3 ranking sector, while Real estates, Technologies and Communications are at the bottom.
MOVE index
Move index is indecisive after broken out of symmetrical triangle. pending for the all important Wednesday session of QRA and Fed meeting.
Bitcoin section
Bitcoin daily charts
Technically speaking, Fail breakout (upside breakout ) indicates professional selling pressure and is bearish near-term, the following is happening currently
20D MA cross below 50D MA and price is seeming sot able to hold above 50D MA, 43500 level and is at risk of falling further.
Will it morph into mid term down trend or will it be a retracement in longer term Uptrend, only time will tell.
Asian Market
Hang Seng
Recent action and news for China & Hong Kong stock market has been absolutely brutal ( a stark contrast to their neighbour, Japan stock market who has been on a tear )
And there was some washout as well ( Asia genesis shutting down after their losing bet on China and Japan ). So I am covering and examining the market to see if 14795 is the lasting bottom or a local low.
So let look at Hang Seng Index,
Hang Seng inability to go to higher than 16450 looks bearish near term.
Also, the down trend line is getting steeper, and the index likely will fall further, which could potentially evolve into a waterfall plunge again. Not advisable to catch a falling knife, unless you want to end up having the same account balance as Asia genesis ( if I have time , I might write up a market lesson using Asia genesis case , because there are tons of lessons there based on CIO Chua Soon Hock statement )
Based on the above chart, China is falling into classical liquidity trap. Stimulus from Central bank policy fail to spur Credit demand.
As always, we will continue to monitor the charts, assess the bullish/bearish evidence day-by-day to make appropriate capital allocation and investment decisions.
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