Daily market review Jan 29, 2024 ( Market rally post Treasury borrowing announcement )
Apparently, market rose on Treasury borrowing lesser. Will Yellen continue to surprise us with the favourable debt profile mix to reinvigorate the bull run? We will know by around Wednesday.
Broad market overview
Benchmark indices rose post treasury borrowing news, equal weighted counterpart , small&mid cap all follow suit and keep pace with benchmark indices.
Additional consideration
Yes institutions are heavily hedge going into this week. And if everyone is prepared for the downside, then market is not likely to fall this week ( unless QRA and fed spring a nasty surprise on us ). If market like what they see from Fed and treasury, they will square off their downside protection hedges which will subsequently give rise to the “misperception” of everything rise after Fed, Fed chair Powell must be doing a great job and is given thumbs up by the market.
If market rally further, I will still participate in it eventually and will keep my stop tight for my shorter term trading. Because the mightier the rally, the nastier the pullback in the future.
S&P 500 11 sectors
Discretionary, Technologies and communications lead the broader market, which is a good news.
NYSE market internals
Monday Jan 30th 2024 session, 2.61 to 1 Advancer to Decliner ratio
MOVE index
MOVE index close at 106.30, unable to break 100 support level after breaking out of symmetrical triangle. possibly waiting for QRA announcement on Wednesday. the continue breaking down of MOVE index below 100 is required for sustained rise in Benchmark indices. ( through lower 10Y yield )
Bitcoin
Fail breakout (upside breakout ) indicates professional selling pressure and is bearish near-term, the following is happening currently
20D MA cross below 50D MA and price has rose above 50D MA, we will monitor closely how many day can price stay above 50D MA
Will it morph into mid term down trend or will it be a retracement in longer term Uptrend,only time will tell
Asian Market
Hang Seng
Recent action and news for China & Hong Kong stock market has been absolutely brutal ( a stark contrast to their neighbour, Japan stock market who has been on a tear )
And there was some washout as well ( Asia Genesis shutting down after their losing bet on China and Japan ). I am covering and examining the market to see if 14795 is the lasting bottom or a local low.
So let look at Hang Seng Index,
Hang Seng inability to go to higher than 16450 looks bearish near term.
As always, we will continue to monitor the charts, assess the bullish/bearish evidence day-by-day to make appropriate capital allocation and investment decisions.
To emphasize again, I will be standing pat and watching the charts ( dollar charts, 10Y yield and many others )
As always, we will continue to monitor the charts ( only monitor for this week ), assess the bullish/bearish evidence day-by-day to make appropriate capital allocation and investment decisions.
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