Daily market review Dec 3, 2024 ( Nasdaq 100 All time high, market breadth retreat , Sentiment is Bullish )
Lately, I've been grappling with a hefty dose of year-end performance anxiety because I am chasing extra gains to meet my lofty personal target (which, let's be honest, might seem like small potatoes to a crypto bro).
This year hasn't exactly been a walk in the park. According to JP Morgan, retail investors significantly underperformed against the market.
The game-changer for me this year has been the additional data and analytics I've woven into my investment/trading review framework. These tools have been invaluable during crunch time, helping me decide whether to raise/reduce stakes, hold, or fold. And guess what? You, dear reader, can also benefit from these insights in a simple, easy-to-digest format within the secret sauce section for subscribers.
The US stock market has been on a tear lately, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posting record closing highs.
JOLTS report posted a 7.74M with higher quite rate, beating streets expectation. Upcoming non-farm data ( or rather the revision to previous months figure ) will be closely watched by investors to gauge the strength of the job market.
Additionally, Powel upcoming speech on December 4th 1:45pm eastern time will be scrutinized for hints of rate pause or hike.
Now, let's dive into the market review section.
Broad market overview
Nasdaq 100 made a record new ATH above 21.22K. Large Cap Weighted indices outperform small& mid cap, Equal-weighted counterpart
S&P 500 11 sectors overview
Discretionary, communications continue to eke out incremental gain recently, while Utility and Real estate, and staples larger retreat is a relief.
MOVE index
Move index is currently at 95.6, bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 9.56% per annum.
Lower MOVE points to (implied) lower bond market volatility going forward. Bond volatility moving lower translates into less haircut to bond, in which more liquidity can be extracted from the collateral pool.
Summary of Market situation
Trend and Momentum Section
SPX
NDX
Market breadth section
% of SPX stocks above 20D 50D 200D moving average
SPX close near ATH while breadth drop slightly, breadth retreat is mainly caused by retracement of Industrial, financials outperformance around election, and retreat of defensive sectors, a good news so far.
% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 71.6%
% of SPX stock above 50Day MA : 64.0%
% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 74.4%
NYSE & Nasdaq market internals
There are more Decliner than Advancer, and at lower volume.
On Dec 3 2024 trading session,
1.46 to 1 NYSE Decliners to Advancer ratio (1648/1126 )
1.67 to 1 Nasdaq Decliners to Advancer ratio (2696/1616 )
Sentiment
Sentiment is extremely bullish, bordering on Mania on the retail side, as evidence by the growth in Leverage ETF AUM
As for institutional side, a targeted and near term review on this in the subscriber section
Positioning
Positioning turn somewhat favourable.
Why is it favourable ? Unlock the latest positioning info and interpretation in subscribers section.
Upcoming Economic data release
There are several high profile data coming this week as well as fed speeches. What are the expected market volatility % for each of this data release ? Unlock the latest expected movement info in subscribers section.
Secret sauce for subscribers section
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