Market gyration and dispersion is incredibly wild, good luck navigating this market without any information compass.

Wouldn’t you want to know where is the bullish rally or bearish downturn confirmation level that all the big institutions are looking at ? All this and more behind the paywall.

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Hello fellow subscribers,

Happy thanksgiving to everyone.

the turmoil is market is eye popping to say the least.

let dive into to short quick no bullshit review and plan for the day and weeks ahead.

Subscribe now

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Lately, I've been grappling with a hefty dose of year-end performance anxiety because I am chasing extra gains to meet my lofty personal target (which, let's be honest, might seem like small potatoes to a crypto bro).

This year hasn't exactly been a walk in the park. According to JP Morgan, retail investors significantly underperformed against the market.

The game-changer for me this year has been the additional data and analytics I've woven into my investment/trading review framework. These tools have been invaluable during crunch time, helping me decide whether to raise/reduce stakes, hold, or fold. And guess what? You, dear reader, can also benefit from these insights in a simple, easy-to-digest format within the secret sauce section for subscribers.

The US stock market has been on a tear lately, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posting record closing highs.

JOLTS report posted a 7.74M with higher quite rate, beating streets expectation. Upcoming non-farm data ( or rather the revision to previous months figure ) will be closely watched by investors to gauge the strength of the job market.

Additionally, Powel upcoming speech on December 4^th 1:45pm eastern time will be scrutinized for hints of rate pause or hike.

Now, let's dive into the market review section.

Broad market overview

Nasdaq 100 made a record new ATH above 21.22K. Large Cap Weighted indices outperform small& mid cap, Equal-weighted counterpart

S&P 500 11 sectors overview

Discretionary, communications continue to eke out incremental gain recently, while Utility and Real estate, and staples larger retreat is a relief.

MOVE index

Move index is currently at 95.6, bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 9.56% per annum.

Lower MOVE points to (implied) lower bond market volatility going forward. Bond volatility moving lower translates into less haircut to bond, in which more liquidity can be extracted from the collateral pool.

Summary of Market situation

Trend and Momentum Section

SPX

NDX

Market breadth section

% of SPX stocks above 20D 50D 200D moving average

SPX close near ATH while breadth drop slightly, breadth retreat is mainly caused by retracement of Industrial, financials outperformance around election, and retreat of defensive sectors, a good news so far.

% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 71.6%

% of SPX stock above 50Day MA : 64.0%

% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 74.4%

NYSE & Nasdaq market internals

There are more Decliner than Advancer, and at lower volume.

On Dec 3 2024 trading session,

1.46 to 1 NYSE Decliners to Advancer ratio (1648/1126 )

1.67 to 1 Nasdaq Decliners to Advancer ratio (2696/1616 )

Sentiment

Sentiment is extremely bullish, bordering on Mania on the retail side, as evidence by the growth in Leverage ETF AUM

As for institutional side, a targeted and near term review on this in the subscriber section

Positioning

Positioning turn somewhat favourable.

Why is it favourable ? Unlock the latest positioning info and interpretation in subscribers section.

Upcoming Economic data release

There are several high profile data coming this week as well as fed speeches. What are the expected market volatility % for each of this data release ? Unlock the latest expected movement info in subscribers section.

Secret sauce for subscribers section

Unlock Exclusive Insights and Secure Your Financial Future!

Are you eager to:

1. Discover near-term opportunities vs. risks and know the right actions to take for your portfolio?

2. Access the "Secret Sauce" section that strengthens the resilience of your investment process, minimizing financial and mental strain during market drawdowns?

3. Expected market movement for the upcoming economic calendar ?

If so, join my Paid Subscription and elevate your financial game!

Why Invest in Our Paid Subscription?

For just $15 per month (a mere $0.50 per day) or $149 per year (less than $0.42 per day), you’ll gain:

🔍 Expert Analysis: In-depth analysis of market trends and actionable insights to stay ahead of the curve. 📈 Big Ideas: Multiple high-impact ideas per year to capitalize on the biggest shifts in the financial market. 🔑 Secret Sauce: Proven strategies and techniques to fortify your investment process, ensuring resilience and long-term growth. 💡 Knowledge & Empowerment: Empower yourself with the knowledge to make informed decisions and accelerate the growth of your savings and investment accounts.

Cost vs. Benefit

Imagine turning your daily coffee budget into a powerful investment strategy that drives your financial success. For less than the cost of a cup of coffee, you can access expert guidance and exclusive insights that have the potential to significantly boost your portfolio's performance.

Why Choose Our Service?

· Proven Results: Our subscribers have consistently outperformed the market, thanks to our timely and insightful advice.

· Comprehensive Support: We don’t just give you the "what" but also the "how" and "why," ensuring you understand every step of your investment journey.

· Community: Join a community of like-minded individuals who are committed to achieving financial independence and success.

Join Us Today!

Don’t miss out on the opportunity to transform your financial future. Subscribe now and start making smarter, more informed investment decisions.

Subscribers secret sauce section

Market expected movement for the upcoming economic data release

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Hi fellow subscribers!

Thanksgiving week has come and gone, and there's so much to be grateful for this year. It’s been a somewhat good year overall—I still managed to afford a decent holiday, and my son's hospital expenses were thankfully covered by insurance. But above all, I’m most grateful for my health. I was plagued by annoying headaches every morning throughout October and November. However, a good sleep during the vacation period seemed to have worked its magic, and the pain has disappeared. (Admittedly, those headaches were the main reason I couldn't focus enough to pen down my market review.)

Personal Reflections

It's easy to get lost in the hustle and bustle of life and forget to take a moment to breathe and reflect. My vacation provided just that—a chance to recharge and gain perspective. I was reminded of the importance of self-care and how crucial it is for our overall well-being. Sometimes, a little R&R is all you need to get back on track.

Market Review

In terms of investing and trading returns, I’m still surviving and have managed to eke out some run-of-the-mill to somewhat-good returns. Maybe I set my expectations too high, or maybe I’m just getting green-eyed seeing all those crypto bros’ returns. Nevertheless, I’ve got to stay grounded in my process. The market has been a rollercoaster, and it's taught me valuable lessons about patience and persistence.

New Framework for Investing and Trading

During the vacation, I had a bit of an epiphany and devised a new, more efficient framework to review my investment and trading process. This new approach is designed to streamline my decision-making and keep my emotions in check. You’ll get a first taste of it in this report, and I hope it provides you with some useful insights. Vacation truly works wonders and creates the perfect conditions to spark new ideas and frameworks.

Looking Ahead

As we move towards the end of the year, it's essential to reflect on our achievements and set realistic goals for the future. I’m optimistic about what lies ahead and excited to continue this journey with all of you. Let’s stay grounded, stay focused, and keep pushing forward.

Remember, it's not just about the destination, but the journey and the lessons we learn along the way. Whether it's about investing, personal growth, or life in general, let's keep striving to be better versions of ourselves. Thank you for sticking around and being part of this community, and I look forward to sharing more awesome insights and experiences with .

Stay healthy, stay grateful, and keep investing wisely!

Now, let's dive into the nitty-gritty of market review

Broad market overview

S&P 500 and Dow made a new ATH again. Equal-weighted indices, small& mid cap are outperforming recently, while Large cap tech lag causing Nasdaq 100 to underperform.

S&P 500 11 sectors overview

Financial, Industry, Discretionary, communications continue to gain ground since elections, while Healthcare underperformance is notable ( not surprising, since RFK Jr become secretary of health )

MOVE index

MOVE has been falling since Election is over. Move index is currently at 95.22, bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 9.52% per annum.

Lower MOVE points to (implied) lower bond market volatility going forward. Bond volatility moving lower translates into less haircut to bond, in which more liquidity can be extracted from the collateral pool.

Summary of Market situation

Trend and Momentum Section

SPX

NDX

Market breadth section

% of SPX stocks above 20D 50D 200D moving average

SPX made new ATH while breadth stay at relatively high level

% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 83.2%

% of SPX stock above 50Day MA : 71.0%

% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 76.0%

NYSE & Nasdaq market internals

There are more Advancer than Decliner.

On Nov 29 2024 shorten trading session,

1.99 to 1 NYSE Decliners to Advancer ratio (1839/924 )

1.84 to 1 Nasdaq Advancers to Decliner ratio (2727/1482 )

Sentiment

It’s extremely bullish, bordering on Mania on the retail side.

As for institutional side, it’s at elevated level as well. More targeted and near term review on this in the subscriber section

Positioning

Subscriber only and is pending for latest data release today, due to shorten Thanksgiving trading week.

Upcoming Economic data release

There are several high profile data coming this week as well as fed speeches. What are the expected market volatility % for each of this data release ? Unlock the expected movement info in subscribers section.

Secret sauce for subscribers section

Unlock Exclusive Insights and Secure Your Financial Future!

Are you eager to:

1. Discover near-term opportunities vs. risks and know the right actions to take for your portfolio?

2. Access the "Secret Sauce" section that strengthens the resilience of your investment process, minimizing financial and mental strain during market drawdowns?

3. Expected market movement for the upcoming economic calendar ?

If so, join my Paid Subscription and elevate your financial game!

Why Invest in Our Paid Subscription?

For just $15 per month (a mere $0.50 per day) or $149 per year (less than $0.42 per day), you’ll gain:

🔍 Expert Analysis: In-depth analysis of market trends and actionable insights to stay ahead of the curve. 📈 Big Ideas: Multiple high-impact ideas per year to capitalize on the biggest shifts in the financial market. 🔑 Secret Sauce: Proven strategies and techniques to fortify your investment process, ensuring resilience and long-term growth. 💡 Knowledge & Empowerment: Empower yourself with the knowledge to make informed decisions and accelerate the growth of your savings and investment accounts.

Cost vs. Benefit

Imagine turning your daily coffee budget into a powerful investment strategy that drives your financial success. For less than the cost of a cup of coffee, you can access expert guidance and exclusive insights that have the potential to significantly boost your portfolio's performance.

Why Choose Our Service?

· Proven Results: Our subscribers have consistently outperformed the market, thanks to our timely and insightful advice.

· Comprehensive Support: We don’t just give you the "what" but also the "how" and "why," ensuring you understand every step of your investment journey.

· Community: Join a community of like-minded individuals who are committed to achieving financial independence and success.

Join Us Today!

Don’t miss out on the opportunity to transform your financial future. Subscribe now and start making smarter, more informed investment decisions.

Subscribers secret sauce section

Market expected movement for the upcoming economic data release

Read more

Broad market overview

Overall, Mid and small cap, Equal weighted indices outperform cap weighted indices.

Although SPX was hovering near recent high, but the same cannot be said for other indices.

S&P 500 11 sectors overview

Utilities, industrials and Materials are the best performing sectors. While healthcare, Financials and Technology are the bottom ranking sectors.

FOMC rate decision meeting announcement at Sep 18

Market is split between 2 camp ( close to 60% for 50 basis point cut, and 40% for 25 baisis point cut )  , it’s a lose lose situation for Fed, if they do 25 basis cut, it will be they are late to the game and not responding enough. If they do a 50 basis cut, they realized they are late and is panicking…etc. To some other group, cutting in September, so close to election reeks of politically bias. It’s a sticky dilemma for which no solution can present without opening yourself to considerable downside bruise. Well, they should have cut in July, but.. nobody knows why they didn’t.

Participants will be closely watching dot plot, in particular Rate path and terminal rate, rate cut odds and yield curve adjustment will be furious. As of 16 Sep 9am Sg time / 15 Sep 9pm US eastern time. Market participants are pricing in a cut till 2.75-3.00% Fed rate by 30 July and 17 Sep 2025.

MOVE index

Move index is currently at 100.6, bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 10% per annum.

forward rate pricing will be adjusted quite furiously when Fed dot plot is published on Sep 18, so MOVE index is likely to be volatile, we will be monitoring it closely post Sep 18 market close, see how it fluctuate 2 - 4 week after Sep 18. 

NYSE & Nasdaq market internals

There are more Advancers than Decliner. But it’s occurring at a lower volume than previous week when market was falling.

On Sep 13 2024,

5.5 to 1 NYSE Advancers to Decliner ratio (2379/433 )

3.1 to 1 Nasdaq Advancers to Decliner ratio (3200/1033 )

% of SPX stocks above 20D 50D 200D moving average

SPX is near high while breadth is not near high

% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 66%

% of SPX stock above 50Day MA :  72.8%

% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 74.2%

Bitcoin

According to the foremost Global Liquidity Expert, Bitcoin track the Global Liquidity relatively closely, lagging only by about 6 weeks, it display the quickest responsiveness to changes in liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin daily chart

Bitcoin is still mired in consolidation, slow bleed down trend doldrums. Currently BTC is below 50D and 200D MA.

It's below 200D MA for several week, while 20D and 50D MA has been sloping down for a few weeks, definitely a cause for concern

If you would like to know more about

1)      the best way to glean insights as Fed begin their rate cutting cycle

2)      what are the upcoming opportunity vs risk , and actions to take for your portfolio

3)      my thoughts on latest market development

then join my Paid subscription

Cost vs Benefit of joining paid subscription

For a price of USD 15 per month ( USD 0.50 per day ) or  USD 149 per year (less than USD 0.42 per day ) I will give multiple big ideas per year to capitalize on biggest trends and shift in financial market to accelerate the growth of your savings / investment accounts.

That’s right, for the price USD 0.50 or less than USD 0.42 per day, you could gain 4 digit or 5 digit in USD annually with a small account if you catch any 1 of the biggest trends from my ideas & suggestions.  I deliberately keep it low to make it extremely affordable and accessible for those with small savings  to access high quality research, market leading indicators/charts.

The following sections are for paid subscribers

Paid subscribers will get my thoughts on the latest update in the market as the situation/development unfolds. You will also get access to higher quality indicator to get a better handle on the market, and triangulate your entry point at Buying/accumulating your 401K ETF product. Conversely, I will also share strategies and timing ideas to avoid upcoming risk and protect your portfolio should there be incoming market risk in the near term horizon.

Read more

Apologies to all the subscribers for the not reporting to your inbox in the past few weeks as my family was down with illness and my son was admitted to hospital recently. And I was quite close to publishing some days, but just couldn’t finish certain section or save those screenshot in time.

Hence I will try to skip some charts for the time being and only post charts that are noteworthy to churn out articles quicker ( or screenshot without commentary )

Broad market overview

Market was largely range abound and will still be confined recent ranges, which calls for nimble action, position adjustment for shorter term trading or hedging at an advantageous position. And if you only know buy & hold, DCA, then don’t look at your portfolio until election dust settles. The churning could be gut wrenching, or vomit inducing if you are not used to seeing market going against you.

Participants was given a taste of this from Sep 6 to Sep 11 trading session ( or end August till now ), in particular, Sep 11 intraday session. 

Recent trading Price action is not dissimilar to whiplash path, on Sep 11, market was falling sharply at the opening before hitting a bottom around 10:45 – 11am US eastern time.  

On Sep 11

Semis was the top performer, rallying by more than 5% , while NDX rally by more than 2%.

Overall, Cap weighted indices outperform equal weight counterpart, small & mid cap indices by a large margin.

On Sep 12 

Small cap was the top performer, rallying by more than 1 %.

Overall, Small and mid cap outperform he overall market. While equal weighted indices performance is almost on par with cap weighted indices.

S&P 500 11 sectors overview

Sep 11 Session.

Technology, discretionary and Communications are the best performing sectors. While Energy, Staples and Financials are the bottom ranking sectors.

Sep 11-12 intraday session ( 15 min bar )

Interestingly on Sep 11 , Staples was falling more, while tech was falling the least from 9:30 am to 11am US eastern time, thereby causing SPX/SPY to fall by a larger % than NDX/QQQ on intraday basis( unusual happening ), which eventually culminated into Tech heavy Nasdaq outperformance against other indices.

Sep 12 Session

Communications, discretionary and Material are the best performing sectors. While Real Estates, Utilities and Financials are the bottom ranking sectors.

FOMC rate decision meeting announcement @ Sep 18

No surprise here, should be the 25 basis cut. But participants will be closely watching dot plot, Rate path and terminal rate, as well as Fed forecast of unemployment rate as Fed reaction function switch to Unemployment post Jackson hole.  Also, Fed chair Powell tone will be closely watch.

MOVE index

Move index is currently at 98.03, bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 9.8% per annum.

As usual, lower MOVE points to (implied) Lower bond market volatility in the future, but forward rate pricing will be adjusted quite furiously when Fed dot plot is published on Sep 18, so MOVE index is likely to be volatile, we will be monitoring it closely post Sep 18 market close, see how it fluctuate 2 - 4 week after Sep 18.  We will likely monitor yield curve as well to see how it fluctuate and evolve going forward ( base case = bull steepener )

Yield Curve

Yield curve has been bull steepening for the past few weeks.

Stock bond relationship

Stock-bond negative correlation is strong. In every cycle, the concern with recession / growth scare will be magnified as fed begin their rate cut cycle.

Stock & bond is one of the important signals to watch, this will be the primary risk on/risk off switches

Intraday Bond vs stock price is one of the best way to glean further insights into this stock bond dynamics which unfortunately is only available in Tradingview .

If you would like to know more about

1)      the best way to glean insights as Fed begin their rate cutting cycle

2)      what is the opportunity set in view of the current risk factors

3)      my thoughts on latest market development

then join my Paid subscription

Cost vs Benefit of joining paid subscription

For a price of USD 15 per month ( USD 0.50 per day ) or  USD 149 per year (less than USD 0.42 per day ) I will give multiple big ideas per year to capitalize on biggest trends and shift in financial market to accelerate the growth of your savings / investment accounts.

That’s right, for the price USD 0.50 or less than USD 0.42 per day, you could gain 4 digit or 5 digit in USD annually with a small account if you catch any 1 of the biggest trends from my ideas & suggestions.  I deliberately keep it low to make it extremely affordable and accessible for those with small savings  to access high quality research, market leading indicators/charts.

The following sections are for paid subscribers

Paid subscribers will get my thoughts on the latest update in the market as the situation/development unfolds. You will also get access to higher quality indicator to get a better handle on the market, and triangulate your entry point at Buying/accumulating your 401K ETF product. Conversely, I will also share strategies and timing ideas to avoid upcoming risk and protect your portfolio should there be incoming market risk in the near term horizon.

Read more

Will BoJ do something stupid again ? this is a question that is on everyone mind. It’s not inconceivable for BoJ governor to turn hawkish to cause an earthquake to erupt again. And as usual, we need to look to USDJPY and Nikkei 225 for clue again in the week ahead.  

Nikkei 225 and USDJPY movement is still an important contextual info

Read more

Over the weekend, If you thought you have seen the end of market collapse on Aug 2^nd, v think again. Because market wake up to another earthquake again on Monday from opening of Asian market hours to the close of European session, this EPIC damage is one that will go down in market history milestone.

We still have to look at USDJPY and Nikkei 225 movement for hints of directional movement, since USDJPY and Nikkei 225 Co-movement or Yen strength (Yen short unwind  => Risk deleveraging ) is the cause of  epicentre of the earthquake, it matters until it’s not.

Nikkei 225 and USDJPY movement is still an important contextual info

Scenario 1 : if USDJPY and Nikkei 225 co-movement is strong/ positively correlated, then everything is subservient to Yen short unwind positioning risk

Scenario 2: if USDJPY and Nikkei 225 Co-movement is broken/exhibit initial signs of negative correlation, then market may likely get relief rally, and possibly emerge from Yen short unwind stress.

Broad market overview

There are panic selling across the board, everything is being dumped. You know it’s extremely bad, when the Candle bar drop to volume bar location, yes it’s that bad.

Yet if you examine closely, there’s a difference between Tech and non tech, Tech heavy sector such as Semi, Nasdaq 100, QQQE, S&P 500 gap lower but attempt to close higher, while all the other thing gap lower and close lower. This difference ( although occur only on 1 day basis ) is something noticeable on Aug 5^th trading session. But don’t read too much into it yet.

Overall, Equal weighted indices outperformed cap weighted counterpart.

S&P 500 11 sectors overview

Wouldn’t read too much into it until the dust settles.

MOVE index

Move index spike to 121.26,close to 19% rise over 2 days. If bond volatility continue to break higher, it would not augur well for market. Conversely, if this spike fade subsequently, then market will get a relief rally.

bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 12.13% per annum. Higher MOVE points to (implied) higher bond market volatility going forward.

Bond volatility moving higher translates into more haircut to bond, in which less liquidity can be extracted from the collateral pool.

VIX index

VIX has spiked to the highest level since Covid era, exceeding 2022 stock market rout. On 2 day baisis ( Aug 2 & 5) It has spike to 225% from low to high , or 86% from from close to close.

The difference in degree of stock and bond volatility has inspired me to do additional investigation for Paid subscribers. So for all the Paid subscribers, check out the paid subscriber section behind the paywall.

NYSE & Nasdaq market internals

There are tons of decliner vs advancer, occurring at a high volume, and it’s a 90% downvolume day in NYSE.

On August 5 2024,

12.84 to 1 NYSE Decliner to Advancer ratio (2658/207 )

6.3 to 1 Nasdaq Decliner to Advancer ratio (3751/595 )

% of SPX stocks above 20D 50D 200D moving average

Breadth declines as price plunge

% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 32.2%

% of SPX stock above 50Day MA :  44.2%

% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 62.8%

SMH

SMH gap filled, Will closely monitor for the pay out of the following scenario,

Scenario 1) undercut the gap and 200D MA before bouncing

Scenario 2) breach through the gap, 200D SMA, and fall further

Also FYI, Down day occur at higher volume than Up day leading to Aug 2, Aug 5 sell off

XLK

XLK Gap filled, will monitor closely for which of following scenario play out,

Scenario 1) undercut the gap and 200D MA before bouncing

Scenario 2) breach through the gap and 200D SMA, and fall further

Bitcoin

According to the foremost Global Liquidity Expert, Bitcoin track the Global Liquidity relatively closely, lagging only by about 6 weeks, it display the quickest responsiveness to changes in liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin daily chart

Currently it has breached below 200D MA, and made a new swing low at 49.2K.

Were you overcome with deep seated anxiety or suffer insomnia over the latest episode of market swoon ? Would you like to have additional charts and tool set to calm those nerve ? If your answer is yes, then you should join my paid subscription.

If you would like to know more about

1)      Most Important level ( line in the sand ) to watch in the current market turmoil.

2)      Current/upcoming market risk factors + additional charts to see market reaction to those risk factors

3)      my thoughts on latest market development

then join my Paid subscription

Cost vs Benefit of joining paid subscription

For a price of USD 15 per month ( USD 0.50 per day ) or  USD 149 per year (less than USD 0.42 per day ) I will give multiple big ideas per year to capitalize on biggest trends and shift in financial market to accelerate the growth of your savings / investment accounts.

That’s right, for the price USD 0.50 or less than USD 0.42 per day, you could gain 4 digit in USD annually with a small account ( 4 digit  - low 5 digit account ) if you catch any 1 of the biggest trends from my ideas & suggestions.  I deliberately keep it low to make it extremely affordable and accessible for those with small savings  to access high quality research, market leading indicators/charts.

The following sections are for paid subscribers

Paid subscribers will get my thoughts on the latest update in the market as the situation/development unfolds. You will get access to high quality indicator & charts to get a better handle on the market, and triangulate your entry point at Buying/accumulating your 401K ETF product. Conversely, I will also share strategies and timing ideas to avoid upcoming risk and protect your portfolio should there be incoming market risk in the near term horizon.

Read more

There’s no doubt that serious damages has been inflicted and market is at a major inflection point. We still have to look at USDJPY and Nikkei 225 movement for hints at market movement.

Nikkei 225 and USDJPY movement is still an important contextual info

Scenario 1 : if USDJPY and Nikkei 225 co-movement is strong/ positively correlated, then everything is subservient to Yen short unwind positioning risk

Scenario 2: if USDJPY and Nikkei 225 Co-movement is broken/exhibit initial signs of negative correlation, then market may likely get relief rally, and possibly emerge from Yen short unwind.

NYSE & Nasdaq market internals

There are more decliner than advancer, occurring at a high volume, and it’s more than 80% downvolume day in NYSE.

On August 2 2024,

3.03 to 1 NYSE Decliner to Advancer ratio (2128/702 )

4.53 to 1 Nasdaq Decliner to Advancer ratio (3498/772 )

% of SPX stocks above 20D 50D 200D moving average

Breadth declines as price fall further

% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 49.2%

% of SPX stock above 50Day MA :  56%

% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 69.6%

SMH @ gap and 175D SMA

Current bull Market and current retracement is led by Semi, so let’s examine semi chart

SMH is in confluence of 175D MA and Top of Gap from early may rally push off April 19 bottom,

Will watch carefully for development of the following scenario,

Scenario 1) bounce off immediately from top of gap and 200D MA

Scenario 2) undercut the gap and 200D MA before bouncing

Scenario 3) breach through and the gap and fall further

Also FYI, Down day occur at higher volume than Up day, bearish overtone, hinting at possibility of falling further before rebound

XLK @ GAP and 200D SMA

Current bull Market and current retracement is led by tech, so let’s examine tech sector chart

XLK is in confluence of 200D MA and Top of Gap from early may rally push off April 19 bottom, will closely monitor the development of following scenario,

Scenario 1) bounce off immediately from top of gap and 200D MA

Scenario 2) undercut the gap and 200D MA before bouncing

Scenario 3) breach through and the gap and fall further

Also FYI, Down day occur at higher volume than Up day, bearish overtone, hinting at possibility of falling further before rebound

Bitcoin

According to the foremost Global Liquidity Expert, Bitcoin track the Global Liquidity relatively closely, lagging only by about 6 weeks, it display the quickest responsiveness to changes in liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin daily chart

Currently it has breached below 200D MA, it need to reassert itself and bounce soon to keep the BTC rally hypothesis alive.

Were you overcome with deep seated anxiety or suffer insomnia over the latest episode of market swoon ? Would you like to have additional charts and tool set to calm those nerve ? If your answer is yes, then you should join my paid subscription.

If you would like to know more about

1)      Current/upcoming market risk factors + additional charts to see market reaction to those risk factors

2)      what is the most compelling opportunity in the current environment

3)      my thoughts on latest market development

then join my Paid subscription

Cost vs Benefit of joining paid subscription

For a price of USD 15 per month ( USD 0.50 per day ) or  USD 149 per year (less than USD 0.42 per day ) I will give multiple big ideas per year to capitalize on biggest trends and shift in financial market to accelerate the growth of your savings / investment accounts.

That’s right, for the price USD 0.50 or less than USD 0.42 per day, you could gain 4 digit in USD annually with a small account ( 4 digit  - low 5 digit account ) if you catch any 1 of the biggest trends from my ideas & suggestions.  I deliberately keep it low to make it extremely affordable and accessible for those with small savings  to access high quality research, market leading indicators/charts.

The following sections are for paid subscribers

Paid subscribers will get my thoughts on the latest update in the market as the situation/development unfolds. You will also get access to higher quality indicator to get a better handle on the market, and triangulate your entry point at Buying/accumulating your 401K ETF product. Conversely, I will also share strategies and timing ideas to avoid upcoming risk and protect your portfolio should there be incoming market risk in the near term horizon.

Read more

To say Aug 1st 2024 market is eventful is an understatement so far,

to give the quickest update possible,

I will skip the usual charts and attach charts with the highest relevant factor as time is of the essence here,

M…

Read more

Broad market overview

Cap weighted indices rebound convincingly off the swing low from previous day July 30^th market session.

Why did the market fall on July 30^th ? Likely a leak from Bank of Japan about the rate hike, which wrong footed the market as consensus only expected Quantitative tightening but not Rate hike. Yikes, The leaks from BoJ is getting too regular.  So if USD JPY / Nikkei move before the meeting date, you could take an intelligent guess at the implications of leak content to the market )

Why did the market rebound post US market close, July 30th ? Could be a function of both anticipated dovishness from Fed and AMD earnings. So Lisa Su and Jay Powell have saved the market. ( and market has moved on from Japanese yen short unwind jitter )

Anyhow, Semi gain more than 7%, and Nasdaq 100 gain 3%, while S&P 5000 gain around 1.5%.

Overall, Cap weighted indices outperform equal weighted counterpart, small and Mid cap indices.

S&P 500 11 sectors overview

Technology, Discretionary, and Utilities are the best performing sectors. While Healthcare , Real estate and Staples are the bottom ranking sectors.

MOVE index

Move index is currently at 99.40, bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 9.95% per annum. Lower MOVE points to (implied) lower bond market volatility going forward.

Bond volatility moving lower translates into less haircut to bond, in which more liquidity can be extracted from the collateral pool.

NYSE & Nasdaq market internals

There are more Advancer than Decliner.

On July 31 2024,

1.68 to 1 NYSE Advancer to Decliner ratio (1762/1049)

1.6 to 1 Nasdaq Advancer to Decliner ratio (2585/1620)

% of SPX stocks above 20D 50D 200D moving average

Breadth is improving as price bounce from 50D MA

% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 68.2%

% of SPX stock above 50Day MA :  73%

% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 80%

Summary post BoJ and FOMC meeting

As I have highlighted to the paid subscribers, the market risk ( & the fall ) in the past 2 weeks was coming from highly anticipated Quantitative tightening plan from Bank of Japan, and the associated positioning unwind of Japanese yen short ( and the associated de-risk movement in liquidating the profitable position of tech sector bet )

I believe we have emerged from Yen short positioning unwind scare, as the co-movement between Nikkei 225 and USDJPY has just been broken.  Nikkei 225 has stop making new low, which I believe is constructive. USDJPY continue fall is caused by Dollar weakness.

As for Federal reserve, there’s a mark shift in the statement, The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labour market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. ( I believe the international is referring to BoJ rate hike and QT ) as opposed to solely inflation mandate in the past, while also teasing us about a September rate cut. All in all, telegraphing a decisive dovish shift in monetary policy stance

Market scary plunge on July 30^th and NDX with 63D Bollinger band.

During July 30^th US market session , market plunge was scary even for seasoned participants, watching the tick by tick fall is nerve wrecking to say the least. ( but essential to the development process as both an investor and a trader ) so what did I do to alleviate my scare ?

One of the thing that could alleviate the scare is watching the market response around 63D SMA Bollinger band, would it breakdown further and retest the lower band or would it rebound ? Currently, it has rebounded above 63D SMA after undercutting it ( AKA false breakdown, bullish sign )

Nasdaq 100 63D-SMA Bollinger band

Just a reminder to the newer subscribers, Large Institutions rebalance their portfolio every quarter, 3 month = 63 trading days, this is rationale behind the creation of this chart with this indicator setting.

NDX and SPX bounce from trendline

NDX

NDX at trendline support from December 2022 bottom, will monitor closely if one of the following 3 scenario applies, Scenario 1A is realized, we will be monitoring the quality and trajectories of the bounce going forward.

Scenario 1A: Bounce from it ( test 100D MA, didn't quite breakdown and started bouncing  by July 30 post US market session all the way until post FOMC meeting )

Scenario 2: Undercut the trendline slightly and bounce from it

Scenario 3: Breach the trendline and retest deeper MA

SPX

SPX at confluence of trendline support from October 2023 bottom & 50D MA, , Scenario 1A is realized, we will be monitoring the quality and trajectories of the bounce going forward.

Scenario 1A: Bounce from it ( rest at 50D MA, didn't quite breakdown, and started bouncing  by July 30 post US market session all the way until post FOMC meeting )

Scenario 2: Undercut the trendline slightly and bounce from it

Scenario 3: Breach the trendline and retest deeper MA

Bitcoin

According to the foremost Global Liquidity Expert, Bitcoin track the Global Liquidity relatively closely, lagging only by about 6 weeks, it display the quickest responsiveness to changes in liquidity conditions. ( In my next market entry I will add Ethereum )

Bitcoin daily chart

Currently it is retesting 50D MA, and RSI is at momentum inflection point , 50 , it need to reassert itself and bounce soon to keep the BTC rally hypothesis alive.

the following happened as it emerge from bottom

1) Price rose above 20D, 50D, and 200D MA in quick succession

2) making a higher high

Were you overcome with deep seated anxiety or suffer insomnia over the latest episode of market swoon ? Would you like to have additional charts and tool set to calm those nerve ? If your answer is yes, then you should join my paid subscription.

If you would like to know more about

1)      Current/upcoming market risk factors + additional charts/indicators to see market reaction to those risk factors

2)      what is the most compelling opportunity in the current environment

3)      my thoughts on latest market development

then join my Paid subscription

Cost vs Benefit of joining paid subscription

For a price of USD 15 per month ( USD 0.50 per day ) or  USD 149 per year (less than USD 0.42 per day ) I will give multiple big ideas per year to capitalize on biggest trends and shift in financial market to accelerate the growth of your savings / investment accounts.

That’s right, for the price USD 0.50 or less than USD 0.42 per day, you could gain 4 digit in USD annually with a small account ( 4 digit  - low 5 digit account ) if you catch any 1 of the biggest trends from my ideas & suggestions.  I deliberately keep it low to make it extremely affordable and accessible for those with small savings  to access high quality research, market leading indicators/charts.

The following sections are for paid subscribers

Paid subscribers will get my thoughts on the latest update in the market as the situation/development unfolds. You will also get access to higher quality indicator to get a better handle on the market, and triangulate your entry point at Buying/accumulating your 401K ETF product. Conversely, I will also share strategies and timing ideas to avoid upcoming risk and protect your portfolio should there be incoming market risk in the near term horizon.

Read more

Broad market overview

Market had a bounce on Friday, every major US indices are gaining 1% or more. Notably, some display morning star candlestick pattern ( DJIA, transports, RSP, S&P 400 mid cap ), but how far it can go depends on Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meeting on July 31^st.

Benchmark indices such Nasdaq 100 & S&P 500 again around 1%, while Dow Jones industrial average gain 1.64%.

While mid and small cap gain 1.63% and 1.81% respectively.

Overall, Equal weighted indices perform equally as well as cap weighted indices.  

S&P 500 11 sectors overview

Communications, Industrials and real estates are the best performing sectors. While healthcare and Energy are the bottom ranking sectors.

MOVE index

Move index is currently at 97.76, bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 9.78% per annum.

MOVE is the space to watch, as the BOJ is expected to launch QT. Because bond yield has high correlation across different country, higher yield in Japanese bond can reverberate around the globe.

USDJPY has been trending lower as Japan 10Y yield shot up, while Nikkei has fallen.

NYSE & Nasdaq market internals

There are more Advancer than Decliner.

On July 26 2024,

4.48 to 1 NYSE Advancer to Decliner ratio (2288/511)

2.55 to 1 Nasdaq Advancer to Decliner ratio (3027/1184)

% of SPX stocks above 20D 50D 200D moving average

improvement in breadth while price is still stuck at 50D MA.

% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 67.6%

% of SPX stock above 50Day MA :  69.8%

% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 77.8%

Outflow of large institution funds from technology

Tell me there’s a sell off without showing me the market charts of S&P500, Nasdaq 100.

Large funds has been liquidating Technology holdings as early as June…

Central bank meeting in the Week ahead

On July 31st, we will have twin Central bank meeting, Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve FOMC rate decision.

BoJ will announce their Quantitative tightening plan while Fed is not expected to cut rate. There are some chatter that Fed may cut rate next week, if it does it will cause market panic, because it may send signal that things are deteriorating fast, fed knows somethings are wrong that the market don’t, often a bad sign.

Having said that I still support cutting Fed rate for the following reasons,

1.       Avoid embarrassment from getting inflation wrong twice.

2.       Normalize the yield curve.

3.       Head off any recessionary tendencies.

4.       Help housing via mortgage rates.

5.       Help banks rollover commercial property loans.

6.       Help the stock market.

7.       Synchronize with the ECB (and Riksbank and SNB).

8.       Help the current White House and/or avoid accusations of political bias if delayed to after the Nov election.

9.       Prevent “higher for longer” from morphing into “higher for too long”.

This will be 1 of the many decisive influence towards the development of NDX and SPX

NDX and SPX charts

NDX

NDX at trendline support from December 2022 bottom and close to testing 100DMA, will monitor closely if one of the following 3 scenario applies,

Scenario 1: Bounce from it

Scenario 2: Undercut the trendline slightly and bounce from it

Scenario 3: Breach the trendline and retest deeper MA

SPX

SPX at confluence of trendline support from October 2023 bottom & 50D MA, will monitor closely if one of the following 3 scenario applies,

Scenario 1: Bounce from it

Scenario 2: Undercut the trendline slightly and bounce from it

Scenario 3: Breach the trendline and retest deeper MA

Bitcoin

According to the foremost Global Liquidity Expert, Bitcoin track the Global Liquidity relatively closely, lagging only by about 6 weeks, it display the quickest responsiveness to changes in liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin daily chart

Selloff in Bitcoin is officially over. It retested and bounce from 20D MA, creating a higher swing low.

also the following happened as it emerge from bottom

1) Price rose above 20D, 50D, and 200D MA in quick succession

2) making a higher high

Bitcoin ETF flow

Bitcoin ETF is witnessing largest inflow since march of this year, bodes well for BTC if inflow continue to increase.

What is the reason for the current stock market plunge and when will it stop ? I believe there are confluence of several factors.

If you would like to know more about

1)      the current market risk factors,

2)      the Most compelling opportunity in the next 3 -6 Months

3)      my thoughts on latest market development

then join my Paid subscription

Cost vs Benefit of joining paid subscription

For a price of USD 15 per month ( USD 0.50 per day ) or  USD 149 per year (less than USD 0.42 per day ) I will give multiple big ideas per year to capitalize on biggest trends and shift in financial market to accelerate the growth of your savings / investment accounts.

That’s right, for the price USD 0.50 or less than USD 0.42 per day, you could gain 4 digit in USD annually with a small account if you catch any 1 of the biggest trends from my ideas & suggestions.  I deliberately keep it low to make it extremely affordable and accessible for those with small savings  to access high quality research, market leading indicators/charts.

The following sections are for paid subscribers

Paid subscribers will get my thoughts on the latest update in the market as the situation/development unfolds. You will also get access to higher quality indicator to get a better handle on the market, and triangulate your entry point at Buying/accumulating your 401K ETF product. Conversely, I will also share strategies and timing ideas to avoid upcoming risk and protect your portfolio should there be incoming market risk in the near term horizon.

Read more

Broad market overview

Market is still in the doldrums of near term bearish trend

Benchmark indices such Nasdaq 100 lost 1%, S&P 500 lost 0.5%, while Dow Jones industrial average gaining a mere 0.2%.

While mid and small cap gain 0.9% and 1.39% respectively.

Overall, Mid and small cap, Equal weighted indices outperform cap weighted indices.

Today is the PCE day, so we will use market response to PCE data release to monitor market closely.

S&P 500 11 sectors overview

Energy, industrials and financial are the best performing sectors. While communications, Technology and utilities are the bottom ranking sectors.

MOVE index

Move index is currently at 99.80, bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 10% per annum.

MOVE is the space to watch, market participants is experiencing jittery as the BOJ is expected to launch QT. Because bond yield has high correlation across different country, higher yield in Japanese bond could reverberate around the globe to all other countries bond yield

USDJPY has been trending lower as 10Y yield shot up.

NYSE & Nasdaq market internals

There are more Advancers than Decliner.

On July 25 2024,

1.97 to 1 NYSE Advancers to Decliner ratio (1847/937 )

1.5 to 1 Nasdaq Advancers to Decliner ratio (2537/1687 )

% of SPX stocks above 20D 50D 200D moving average

Decline in shorter term breadth as SPX decline to 50D MA.

% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 60.6%

% of SPX stock above 50Day MA :  62.8%

% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 73.4%

Outflow of large institution funds from large cap July 15 – 19

Tell me there’s a sell off without showing me the market charts of S&P500, Nasdaq 100.

Also retail saw inflow, institutions saw outflow, the perfect illustration of chasm between smart money vs dumb money.

Bitcoin

According to the foremost Global Liquidity Expert, Bitcoin track the Global Liquidity relatively closely, lagging only by about 6 weeks, it display the quickest responsiveness to changes in liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin daily chart

Selloff in Bitcoin is officially over. It's current retesting 20D MA, and pending for it to print a higher swing low.

1) Price rose above 20D, 50D, and 200D MA in quick succession

2) making a higher high

3)RSI is above 50

What is the reason for the current stock market plunge and when will it stop ? I believe there are confluence of several factors.

If you would like to know more about

1)the current market risk factors

2) what is the opportunity set in view of the current risk factors

3)my thoughts on latest market development

then join my Paid subscription

Cost vs Benefit of joining paid subscription

For a price of USD 15 per month ( USD 0.50 per day )or  USD 149 per year (less than USD 0.42 per day ) I will give multiple big ideas per year to capitalize on biggest trends and shift in financial market to accelerate the growth of your savings / investment accounts.

That’s right, for the price USD 0.50 or less than USD 0.42 per day, you could gain 4 digit or 5 digit in USD annually with a small account if you catch any 1 of the biggest trends from my ideas & suggestions.  I deliberately keep it low to make it extremely affordable and accessible for those with small savings  to access high quality research, market leading indicators/charts.

The following sections are for paid subscribers

Paid subscribers will get my thoughts on the latest update in the market as the situation/development unfolds. You will also get access to higher quality indicator to get a better handle on the market, and triangulate your entry point at Buying/accumulating your 401K ETF product. Conversely, I will also share strategies and timing ideas to avoid upcoming risk and protect your portfolio should there be incoming market risk in the near term horizon.

Read more

Broad market overview

Market is going through another sell off again. In Semi and Nasdaq 100, the plunge below 50D MA are akin to knife cutting through hot butter

Benchmark indices such Nasdaq 100 lost 3.65%, S&P 500 lost 2.31%, while Dow Jones industrial average lost 1.25%.

While mid and small cap lost 1.97% and 1.86% respectively.

Overall, Mid and small cap, Equal weighted indices outperform cap weighted indices.

S&P 500 11 sectors overview

Utilities, healthcare and energy are the best performing sectors. While Technology, Discretionary, Communications are the bottom ranking sectors.

MOVE index

Move index is currently at 94.80, bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 9.48% per annum. Lower MOVE points to (implied) lower bond market volatility going forward.

Bond volatility moving lower translates into less haircut to bond, in which more liquidity can be extracted from the collateral pool.

NYSE & Nasdaq market internals

There are much more Decliner than Advancers, and occurred at higher volume than previous days and week.

On July 24 2024,

4.68 to 1 NYSE Decliner to Advancers ratio (2314/494 )

3.17 to 1 Nasdaq Decliner to Advancers ratio (3191/1005 )

% of SPX stocks above 20D 50D 200D moving average

Further decline in shorter term breadth as SPX decline to 50D MA.

% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 59%

% of SPX stock above 50Day MA :  59.2%

% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 72.6%

Bitcoin

According to the foremost Global Liquidity Expert, Bitcoin track the Global Liquidity relatively closely, lagging only by about 6 weeks, it display the quickest responsiveness to changes in liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin recent function as a liquidity proxy has recovered,  there are strong technical reasons to believe we have emerge fully from Mt Gox and German government supply overhang

Bitcoin daily chart

Selloff in Bitcoin is officially over. It's current retesting 20D MA, and pending for it to print a higher swing low.

1) Price rose above 20D, 50D, and 200D MA in quick succession

2) making a higher high

3)RSI is above 50

What is the reason for the current stock market plunge and when will it stop ? I believe there are confluence of several factors

if you would like to know more about the current market risk factors, and risk parameters to establish high probability profitable trade, and my thoughts on latest market development then join my Paid subscription

Cost vs Benefit of joining paid subscription

For a price of USD 15 per month ( USD 0.50 per day ) or  USD 149 per year (less than USD 0.42 per day ) I will give multiple big ideas per year to capitalize on biggest trends and shift in financial market to accelerate the growth of your savings / investment accounts.

That’s right, for the price USD 0.50 or less than USD 0.42 per day, you could gain 4 digit or 5 digit in USD annually with a small account if you catch any 1 of the biggest trends from my ideas & suggestions.  I deliberately keep it low to make it extremely affordable and accessible for those with small savings  to access high quality research, market leading indicators/charts.

The following sections are for paid subscribers

Paid subscribers will get my thoughts on the latest update in the market as the situation/development unfolds. You will also get access to higher quality indicator to get a better handle on the market, and triangulate your entry point at Buying/accumulating your 401K ETF product. Conversely, I will also share strategies and timing ideas to avoid upcoming risk and protect your portfolio should there be incoming market risk in the near term horizon.

Read more

Apologies to readers and subscribers for not being able to provide frequent, high octane update during this crucial period where so many things have transpired since last Thursday and Sunday. I am still down with another bout food poisoning and illness AGAINN. Still not feeling my usual self, but will try my best to cover as much basics as I possibly can.

Things are heating up, regardless of your allegiance/preference, there are clear cut implications for market performance of certain sectors, factors, and ultimately your portfolio performance.  

After Trump failed assassination attempt, odds of him getting elected has been riding high, politically speaking, he’s pro-local, pro-deregulation and has certain liking for lower rate, which translates into pro small cap and pro financials ( financials are 40% of small cap ). This is tail wind no.1 .

Tail wind no.2 is Fed rate cut expectation, as market price in more rate cuts, this is also to the advantage of small cap as they have a higher percentage of floating rate loan

Broad market overview

The rebound is swift, decisive and across the board after 3 days sell off. Top performers was led by Semi, bouncing off 50D MA and gaining 3.86%.

Benchmark indices such Nasdaq 100 gained 1.5%, S&P 500 gained to 1%, while Dow Jones industrial average gain closed to 0.3%.

While mid and small cap gain 1.5% and 1.24% respectively.

Sell off might possibly be over, Rotation may still be ongoing.

S&P 500 11 sectors overview

Technologies, discretionary and industrials are the best performing sectors. While Energy, Staples, materials are the bottom ranking sectors.

MOVE index

Move index is currently at 94.45, bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 9.45% per annum. Lower MOVE points to (implied) lower bond market volatility going forward.

Bond volatility moving lower translates into less haircut to bond, in which more liquidity can be extracted from the collateral pool.

NYSE & Nasdaq market internals

There are more Advancer than Decliners.

On July 22 2024,

2.97 to 1 NYSE Advancer to Decliners ratio (2073/697 )

2.3 to 1 Nasdaq Advancers to Decliners ratio (2955/1287 )

% of SPX stocks above 20D 50D 200D moving average

Hardly any decline in breadth despite 3 day sell off. As institutions rotate money into other sector, cap-weighted indices may possibly underperform.

% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 75.2%

% of SPX stock above 50Day MA :  69.6%

% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 76%

Large institution selling winner from July 10 - 18

Per Goldman Sachs primebook, Large institution had been degrossing from July 10 - 18 ( lightening position, selling winners ) in case you wonder why the sell off appear out of nowhere.

Bitcoin

According to the foremost Global Liquidity Expert, Bitcoin track the Global Liquidity relatively closely, lagging only by about 6 weeks, it display the quickest responsiveness to changes in liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin recent function as a liquidity proxy has recovered,  there are strong technical reasons to believe we have emerge fully from Mt Gox and German government supply overhang

Bitcoin daily chart

Selloff in Bitcoin is officially over

1) Price rose above 20D, 50D, and 200D MA in quick succession

2) making a higher high

3)RSI is above 50

Join my paid subscription as I unpack and give you the best investment idea to take advantage of the current rotation

if you would like to know more about the risk parameters to establish high probability profitable trade, and subsequent response to next market development then join my Paid subscription

the following sections are for paid subscribers

Paid subscribers will get my thoughts on the latest update in the market as the situation/development unfolds. You will also get access to higher quality indicator ( money flow, AVWAP, cycles ) to get a better handle on the market, and triangulate your entry point at Buying/accumulating your 401K ETF product.

Join the subscription and leave your doubt behind if you want to avoid second guessing yourself on your Investment and trading decision. In today market, you need access to evidence based research and analysis to thrive and grow your account. Otherwise, you will be left guessing, 2^nd guessing yourself pose a huge cost to your money, your time and lost Opportunity cost in the market.

Quality decision making is my middle name, which allows your money to work for you in the financial market, saving you tons of time and money while you are busy attending to your work and family commitments.

Read more

Apologies to readers and subscribers for not being able to provide timely update during this crucial period where so many things have transpired since last Friday. I was down with food poisoning and illness. Still not feeling my usual self, but will try my best to cover as much basics as I possibly can.

Broad market overview

The decline is nasty and swift after Trump Taiwan defence comment.

Semiconductors are the worst performers, losing over 7% and at higher than usual volume.

Benchmark indices such Nasdaq 100 lost close to 3%, S&P 500 lost close to 1.4%, while Dow Jones industrial average gain closed to 0.6%.

Overall, Mid&small cap, equal weighted indices outperformed Cap weighted indices.

It’s believed that the sell off/rotation out of technology sector is not over yet. ( still believed it’s short term in nature, but the degree of retracement might still be larger than expected )

S&P 500 11 sectors overview

The usual suspects are the worst performers in a day like this, Technologies, Communications and discretionary are the bottom ranking sectors. While Staples, Energy, real estates are the best performers.

MOVE index

Move index is currently at 91,  ( bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 9.1% per annum. ) Lower MOVE points to (implied) lower bond market volatility going forward.

Bond volatility moving lower translates into less haircut to bond, in which more liquidity can be extracted from the collateral pool.

NYSE & Nasdaq market internals

There are more Decliners than Advancers, but the ratio is not lopsided and seem mild

On July 17 2024,

1.4 to 1 NYSE Decliners to Advancers ratio (1629/1157 )

1.66 to 1 Nasdaq Advancers to Decliners ratio (2633/1587 )

% of SPX stocks above 20D 50D 200D moving average

Hardly any decline in breadth despite the sell off, but as institutions rotate money into other sector, cap-weighted indices will experience larger than expected pullback.

% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 80%

% of SPX stock above 50Day MA :  76.2%

% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 80.4%

Bitcoin

According to the foremost Global Liquidity Expert, Bitcoin track the Global Liquidity relatively closely, lagging only by about 6 weeks, it display the quickest responsiveness to changes in liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin recent function as a liquidity proxy has gone completely kaput for the past few days, this is because Bitcoin is mired in its own market idiosyncrasy, while stock market is obeying in its own cycle characteristics

Both Mt Gox and German government move their bitcoin at liquidity thin holiday period around Independence day, contributing to the sell off. And we have emerge fully from the aforementioned chaos.

Bitcoin daily chart

Selloff in Bitcoin is officially over

1) Price rose above 20D, 50D, and 200D MA in quick succession

2) made a higher high at 66.1K

3) RSI is above 50

Join my paid subscription as I unpack and give you the best investment idea to take advantage of the current rotation

if you would like to know more about the risk parameters to establish high probability profitable trade, and subsequent response to next market development then join my Paid subscription

Cost vs Benefit of joining paid subscription

For a price of USD 15 per month ( USD 0.50 per day ) or  USD 149 per year (less than USD 0.42 per day ) I will give multiple big ideas per year to capitalize on biggest trends and shift in financial market to accelerate the growth of your savings / investment accounts.

That’s right, for the price USD 0.50 or less than USD 0.42 per day, you could gain 4 digit or 5 digit in USD annually with a small account if you catch any 1 of the biggest trends from my ideas & suggestions.  I deliberately keep it low to make it extremely affordable and accessible for those with small savings  to access high quality research, market leading articles/charts.

The following sections are for paid subscribers

Paid subscribers will get my thoughts on the latest update in the market as the situation/development unfolds. You will also get access to higher quality indicator to get a better handle on the market, and triangulate your entry point at Buying/accumulating your 401K ETF product. Conversely, I will also share strategies and timing ideas to avoid upcoming risk and protect your portfolio should there be incoming market risk in the near term horizon.

Read more

As I was scouring the internet for the thumbnail photo that would depict the theme for this market entry, I came across this interesting picture of David vs Goliath, as the picture implies the small and the medium will initiate their outperformance against Megacap as more rate cut are priced in. But how sustainable it is, will remain to be seen.

Broad market overview

Post CPI data release, leading performers such as Semiconductors, cap-weighted indices experience losses ranging from -3.64  to -0.88.  

Small and mid cap had a monster rally of 3.31% and 2.45% respectively

Equal weighted indices performed better than cap-weighted indices, rotation is ongoing as the lower than expected move has finally given hope to more rate cut, sparking revival in mid and small cap.

S&P 500 11 sectors overview

Real estate, Utilities and materials are the top performing sectors, while Technology, communications and discretionary are the worst performing sectors.

MOVE index

Falling from lower high here, and has been falling for 6 consecutive session.

Move index is currently at 89.67,  ( bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 8.97% per annum. ) Lower MOVE points to (implied) lower bond market volatility going forward.

Bond volatility moving lower translates into less haircut to bond, in which more liquidity can be extracted from the collateral pool.

NYSE & Nasdaq market internals

There are significantly more advancers than decliners

On July 11 2024,

6 to 1 NYSE Advancers to Decliners ratio (2433/405 )

3.05 to 1 Nasdaq Advancers to Decliners ratio (3201/1048 )

% of SPX stocks above 20D 50D 200D moving average

Marked improvement in breadth and broadening of rally is coming soon, but as institutions rotate money into other sector, cap-weighted indices will experience pullback, albeit should be a healthy one

% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 75.8%

% of SPX stock above 50Day MA :  63.4%

% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 71%

Bitcoin

According to the foremost Global Liquidity Expert, Bitcoin track the Global Liquidity relatively closely, lagging only by about 6 weeks, it display the quickest responsiveness to changes in liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin recent function as a liquidity proxy has gone completely kaput for the past few days, this is because Bitcoin is mired in its own market idiosyncrasy, while stock market is obeying in its own cycle characteristics

Both Mt Gox and German government move their bitcoin at liquidity thin holiday period around Independence day, contributing to the sell off, and we have yet to emerge from the current chaos.

Bitcoin daily chart

Selloff in Bitcoin has accelerated and a new swing low was printed at 53.5K , 200D MA has been breached

Will Monitor extremely closely if it either of the 3 scenario applies,

1) successfully defend the 200D MA

2) further waterfall decline

2) short stay below200D ma and develop a certain fail breakdown pattern

Join my paid subscription as I unpack and give you more contextual data to analyze and reveal if this pullback in cap-weighted indices is something you should be concerned about.

If you would like to know more about the risk parameters to establish high probability profitable trade, and subsequent response to next market development then join my Paid subscription

the following sections are for paid subscribers

Paid subscribers will get my thoughts on the latest update in the market as the situation/development unfolds. You will also get access to higher quality indicator ( money flow, AVWAP, cycles ) to get a better handle on the market, and triangulate your entry point at Buying/accumulating your 401K ETF product.

Join the subscription and leave your doubt behind if you want to avoid second guessing yourself on your Investment and trading decision. In today market, you need access to evidence based research and analysis to thrive and grow your account. Otherwise, you will be left guessing, 2^nd guessing yourself pose a huge cost to your money, your time and lost Opportunity cost in the market.

Quality decision making is my middle name, which allows your money to work for you in the financial market, saving you tons of time and money while you are busy attending to your work and family commitments.

Read more

Broad market overview

Overall market didn’t move much on Monday, as market is pending for Powell Semi-annual testimony to Congress on Tuesday and CPI print on Thursday. On hindsight, based on the market action of the past 5 days, (cap-weighted) market has already priced in softer CPI and softer labour/economic growth post Powell disinflation narrative last Tuesday in Sintra ECB forum. Economic data bears that out as well, softer inflation, softer growth and labour market, resembling a goldilocks type of situation.

There’re still a lot skeptics out there,

1)      Talk of  second wave of inflation coming ( higher shipping freight cost, still too soon to price in for market  )

2)      Fed cut = bad things happening  ( recession coming , or hard landing…etc, there’s too much government spending for the economy to fall into recession )

3)      Breadth is extremely weak, market performance is driven by a few AI related stock. This is what we are watching carefully, if there’s no broadening out in times to come, then additional caution may be warranted

But we do believe that this week will be a week of reckoning as Fed chair Powell testimony and CPI will quash the first 2 narratives out there. And if you take any action by Thursday when the dust settles, it would have been too late. But what about entering market now, well not much upside to capture and risk rewards has become unfavourable. ( I hope I’m wrong, but let’s see )

S&P 500 11 sectors overview

Nothing much to see here..

MOVE index

Falling from lower high here.

Move index is currently at 97.96,  ( bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 9.8% per annum. ) Lower MOVE points to (implied) lower bond market volatility going forward.

Bond volatility moving lower translates into less haircut to bond, in which more liquidity can be extracted from the collateral pool.

NYSE & Nasdaq market internals

There’s marginally more advancers than decliners

Generally after Memorial day holiday, volume will decline gradually heading into the summer season.

On July 8 2024,

1.25 to 1 NYSE Advancers to Decliners ratio (1552/1236 )

1.27 to 1 Nasdaq Decliners to Advancers ratio (2346/1842 )

% of stock above 20Day, 50Day, 200Day

Breadth stalled while SPX  breakout from recent consolidation range.

breakout and improvement in breadth may possibly be coming soon, which could bring about broad based rally. Otherwise…

% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 47.8%

% of SPX stock above 50Day MA :  46.8%

% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 65.8%

TNX and high yield bond

10Y yield drop breached support and is at 4.27%, High yield bond and S&P 500 has broken out of the consolidation range

Bitcoin

According to the foremost Global Liquidity Expert, Bitcoin track the Global Liquidity relatively closely, lagging only by about 6 weeks, it display the quickest responsiveness to changes in liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin recent function as a liquidity proxy has gone completely kaput for the past few days, this is because Bitcoin is mired in its own market idiosyncrasy, while stock market is obeying in its own cycle characteristics

Both Mt Gox and German government move their bitcoin at liquidity thin holiday period around Independence day, contributing to the sell off

German government bitcoin movement

German government has moved tremendous amount of bitcoin to the exchange

Will it cause further sell-off or will market be able to absorb the selling qty without losing ground ?

Bitcoin daily chart

Selloff in Bitcoin has accelerated and a new swing low was printed at 53.5K , 200D MA has been breached

Will Monitor extremely closely if it either of the 3 scenario applies,

1) successfully defend the 200D MA

2) further waterfall decline

2) short stay below200D ma and develop a certain fail breakdown pattern

NDX and SPX trend line is getting steeper

Trendline is getting steeper, should you be concerned ?

When will breadth improve and kickstart a broad based rally and when should you be concerned if the market rally is still not broadening out

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So when will breadth improve and kickstart a broad based rally subsequently?

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Broad market overview

June NFP printed at around 207K around consensus, and market rally subsequently. Hopefully this time around we won’t have revision downwards subsequently. But bias is still leaning towards downward revision later, because for the past 2 months data release,

May NFP printed at 272K, but was revised to 218K subsequently

April NFP printed at 175K, but was revised to 108K subsequently

And not to mention last year, 2023 NFP was inflated by more than 700K, so you be the judge on whether there will be a revision down the road. The trend of weaker employment is getting increasingly visible

 
Anyhow, Tech indices such as Cap-weighted Nasdaq 100, equal weighted QQQ gain 1% and 0.83% respectively, resembling a broad based rally of sorts in tech, which has occurred for 2nd time this week.

S&P 500 close at 0.54% thanks to outperformance of heavy weights in several sectors.

While Mid and small cap, transportation lose around 0.75%. all other indices close flat for the day.

Overall, cap-weighted indices outperform Small and Mid cap, equal weighted counterpart.

S&P 500 11 sectors overview

Communications, Staples, Discretionary and healthcare are the best performing sectors, while energy and industrials are the worst performing sector.

MOVE index

Continuous fall in 10Y yield mean MOVE is moving lower as well. As a result, we are having what would call a fail upside breakout, and we are falling lower from lower high here.

Move index is currently at 98.79,  ( bond price implied volatility is expected to be around 9.88% per annum. ) Lower MOVE points to (implied) lower bond market volatility going forward.

Bond volatility moving lower translates into less haircut to bond, in which more liquidity can be extracted from the collateral pool.

NYSE & Nasdaq market internals

Lackluster breadth as decliners are still more than advancers.

Generally after Memorial day holiday, volume will decline gradually heading into the summer season.

On July 5 2024,

1.25 to 1 NYSE Decliners to Advancers ratio (1552/1236 )

1.05 to 1 Nasdaq Decliners to Advancers ratio (2133/2022 )

% of stock above 20Day, 50Day, 200Day

Breadth stalled while SPX  breakout from recent consolidation range.

breakout and improvement in breadth is likely coming soon, which can bring about broad based rally

% of SPX stock above 20D MA : 44.4%

% of SPX stock above 50Day MA :  45.6%

% of SPX stock above 200Day MA : 65.4%

TNX and high yield bond

10Y yield drop breached support and is at 4.27%, High yield bond and S&P 500 has broken out of the consolidation range

Bitcoin

According to the foremost Global Liquidity Expert, Bitcoin track the Global Liquidity relatively closely, lagging only by about 6 weeks, it display the quickest responsiveness to changes in liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin recent function as a liquidity proxy has gone completely kaput for the past few days, this is because Bitcoin is mired in its own market idiosyncrasy, while stock market is obeying in its own cycle characteristics

Both Mt Gox and German government moved their bitcoin at liquidity thin holiday period around Independence day, contributing to the sell off

Bitcoin daily chart

Selloff in Bitcoin has accelerated and a new swing low was printed at 53.5K , 200D MA has been breached

Will Monitor extremely closely if it either of the 3 scenario applies,

1) successfully defend the 200D MA

2) further waterfall decline

2) short stay below200D ma and develop a certain fail breakdown pattern

It was absolute carnage on US July 4^th Holiday evening time, in fact bloodshed massacre is an understatement,

The worst sell off was around July 4^th 11pm to July 5th 12:30am US eastern time or July 5^th 11am to 12:30pm Singapore time it was a bloody massacre to visualize how furious was the sell off, we need to look at the following Crypto liquidation analytics

Crypto liquidation analytics around July 4^th 12:20pm Singapore time / 12:20am US Eastern time

In the past 1H, 29.5 to 1 long:short liquidated

in the past 4H, 10.57 to 1 long:short liquidated

in the past 24H , 7.33 to 1 long:short liquidated ( more than 7.33 long liquidated vs 1 short liquidated )

NDX and SPX trend line getting steeper, time to worry ?

Trendline is getting steeper, should you be concerned ?

Addtional question, When will breadth improve and kickstart a broad based rally ?

If you would like to know more about the answer to the above query or risk parameters to establish high probability profitable trade, and subsequent response to next market development then join my Paid subscription

the following sections are for paid subscribers

Paid subscribers will get my thoughts on the latest update in the market as the situation/development unfolds. You will also get access to higher quality indicator ( money flow, AVWAP, cycles ) to get a better handle on the market, and triangulate your entry point at Buying/accumulating your 401K ETF product.

Join the subscription and leave your doubt behind if you want to avoid second guessing yourself on your Investment and trading decision. In today market, you need access to evidence based research and analysis to thrive and grow your account. Otherwise, you will be left guessing, 2^nd guessing yourself pose a huge cost to your money, your time and lost Opportunity cost in the market.

Quality decision making is my middle name, which allows your money to work for you in the financial market, saving you tons of time and money while you are busy attending to your work and family commitments.

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When will breadth improve and kickstart a broad based rally subsequently?

Read more